Macro Season: Summer — Inflationary Boom · Week of June 8–14, 2026

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ISM PMI54.0 ▲
US M2$20.6T ▲
DXY99.86 ▼
Fed Funds3.50–3.75%
Bitcoin$62,860 ▲
Gold$4,082

Markets have seasons.
Learn to read them.

Where you are in the economic cycle determines everything that follows. Our framework tracks two forces — growth (ISM) and inflation — to identify which of four macro seasons we're in. Tap each season to see what it means for your money.

☀️ SUMMER — We are here
Inflationary Boom: growth is rising and inflation is rising too. Historically a risk-on season for crypto — inflation is the tax on the rally, not the thesis-killer. The 5th straight month of economic expansion confirms it.
SPRING
Disinflationary Boom
Growth ↑ · Inflation ↓
◆ WE ARE HERE
SUMMER
Inflationary Boom
Growth ↑ · Inflation ↑
◆ WE ARE HERE
FALL
Stagflation
Growth ↓ · Inflation ↑
◆ WE ARE HERE
WINTER
Deflationary Bust
Growth ↓ · Inflation ↓
◆ WE ARE HERE
Macro
Seasons

Six numbers that drive everything

Forget the noise. These are the only dials that matter for the crypto thesis — updated every week in our report.

▲ +1.3
ISM Mfg PMI
0
5th month above 50 — highest since May 2022. THE signal.
▲ +7.4%
US M2 Supply
$0T
Liquidity tide expanding. BTC beta to global M2 ≈ 2×.
▼ Fading
DXY Index
0
Pulling back from 100.1. Break below 99 = risk-on catalyst.
— Hold
Fed Funds
3.50–3.75%
Jun 17 FOMC: 96% probability of hold.
▲ +3.8%
Bitcoin
$0
Recovering from sub-$60K lows. Largest macro dislocation of the cycle.
▼ −27%
Gold
$0
Healthy consolidation off Jan ATH. The fire alarm before the fire.
● Live readings from the latest weekly report — June 11, 2026 Educational use only — not financial advice

What the macro implies for Bitcoin

Historical models map economic growth (ISM) to Bitcoin's implied fair value. Spot price today: $62,860. The model says the gap is the opportunity.

ISM 52Floor scenario
$215KImplied BTC
ISM 54NOWCurrent reading
$285K4.5× spot
ISM 58Acceleration
$420KImplied BTC
ISM 63+Blow-off top
$820K+Implied BTC

Model: HP-Filter implied pricing (GMI framework) · Models are scenarios, not promises · Educational use only

One report. Every week.
Zero noise.

● Latest Edition — Week of June 8–14, 2026
Crypto Macro Outlook 2026:
Summer Regime Confirmed
"The ISM PMI is the single most important macro number for crypto." — Raoul Pal, Real Vision (framework we build on)
ISM at 54.0 — 5 consecutive months of expansion, highest print since May 2022
Global M2 growing +7.4% YoY — the liquidity tide that lifts Bitcoin most
DXY fading from highs — a sustained break below 99 is the risk-on trigger
Gold consolidating −27% off ATH — central banks still buying at record pace
Six central banks easing simultaneously — ECB, BoE, PBoC, BoC all expanding
Spot vs ISM-implied value: the largest dislocation of the entire cycle
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You work hard. You save. You want your money to mean something in 10 years. This is investing by the economic cycle — not by hype, Twitter, or luck.

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Every week we tell you exactly where we are in the economic cycle — in plain language. Spring, Summer, Fall, or Winter. Risk-on or risk-off. No jargon walls.
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