Macro Season: Summer, Inflationary Boom · Week of June 15 to 21, 2026

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ISM PMI54.0 ▲
US M2$20.7T ▲
DXY100.78 ▲
Fed Funds3.50 to 3.75%
Bitcoin ● LIVE$63,519 ▼
Gold ● LIVE$4,165
The Framework

Markets have seasons.
Learn to read them.

Where you are in the economic cycle determines everything that follows. Our framework tracks two forces, growth (ISM) and inflation, to identify which of four macro seasons we're in. Tap each season to see what it means for your money.

☀️ SUMMER · We are here
Inflationary Boom: ISM 54 is still in expansion, the 5th straight month. This week the Fed raised its 2026 inflation outlook to 3.6% and flipped its dot plot toward a hike, deepening the Summer regime. A durable Hormuz reopening that cools CPI is what could tilt us back toward Spring, the strongest crypto season of all.
SPRING
Disinflationary Boom
Growth ↑ · Inflation ↓
◆ WE ARE HERE
SUMMER
Inflationary Boom
Growth ↑ · Inflation ↑
◆ WE ARE HERE
FALL
Stagflation
Growth ↓ · Inflation ↑
◆ WE ARE HERE
WINTER
Deflationary Bust
Growth ↓ · Inflation ↓
◆ WE ARE HERE
Macro
Seasons
Mission Control

Six numbers that drive everything

Forget the noise. These are the only dials that matter for the crypto thesis, updated every week in our report.

▲ +1.3
ISM Mfg PMI
0
5th month above 50. New Orders 56.8 confirms demand accelerating.
▲ +6.8%
US M2 Supply
$0T
Global M2 +6.8% YoY. The liquidity tide is still rising.
▲ 2026 high
DXY Index
0
Broke above 100 after a hawkish FOMC. Strong USD is the headwind.
Hawkish hold
Fed Funds
3.50 to 3.75%
Jun 17: 4th straight hold, but the dot plot flipped to a hike.
▼ −1.3%
Bitcoin ● LIVE
$0
Holding $60K post FOMC. Spot vs ISM-implied floor is a 3.4× gap.
▼ −25%
Gold ● LIVE
$0
25% off Jan ATH ($5,589). Central banks still buying at record pace.
● Live readings from the latest weekly report · June 21, 2026 Educational use only · not financial advice
The Thesis

What the macro implies for Bitcoin

Historical models map economic growth (ISM) to Bitcoin's implied fair value. Spot this week sits near $63,500, while the ISM-implied floor is $215K. The model says the gap is the opportunity.

ISM 52Floor scenario
$215KImplied BTC
ISM 54NOWCurrent reading
$285K4.5× spot
ISM 58Acceleration
$420KImplied BTC
ISM 63+Blow-off top
$820K+Implied BTC

Model: HP-Filter implied pricing (GMI framework) · Models are scenarios, not promises · Educational use only

The Product

One report. Every week.
Zero noise.

● Latest Edition · Week of June 15 to 21, 2026
Crypto Macro Outlook 2026:
Summer Holds, the Fed Turns Hawkish
"The ISM PMI is the single most important macro number for crypto." Raoul Pal, Real Vision (framework we build on)
ISM at 54.0, 5 consecutive months of expansion, New Orders 56.8 confirms demand is accelerating
US M2 at $20.7T, global M2 growing +6.8% YoY, the liquidity tide that lifts Bitcoin most
DXY broke above 100 to a fresh 2026 high, the new headwind this week
Fed turned hawkish: held on Jun 17, but the dot plot flipped to a hike, median dot now 3.8%
Gold consolidating 25% off its January ATH, central banks still buying at record pace
BTC at $63.5K vs an ISM-implied $215K floor, a 3.4× gap and the largest dislocation of the cycle
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For Newcomers

Built for people with goals,
not gamblers

You work hard. You save. You want your money to mean something in 10 years. This is investing by the economic cycle, not by hype, Twitter, or luck.

01
Learn the season
Every week we tell you exactly where we are in the economic cycle, in plain language. Spring, Summer, Fall, or Winter. Risk-on or risk-off. No jargon walls.
02
Watch the six dials
ISM, liquidity, the dollar, rates, Bitcoin, gold. We track them, explain what changed, and what it means, so you understand the *why* behind every move.
03
See real decisions, transparently
We share the portfolio thinking openly: what we're watching, what would change our mind, and how the thesis evolves. Outcomes included. Wins and losses.
04
Build wealth with patience
No day-trading. No 100× promises. Position with the cycle, manage risk, and let time and liquidity do the heavy lifting. That's how lasting wealth is actually built.
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🛰️
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🔭
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🪐
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